Aucklanders are flooding onto buses, trains and ferries in numbers not seen since before the pandemic, as fuel prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East push public transport use to a seven-year high.
Tuesday was Auckland's busiest day on public transport since 2019, with 7000 more trips than the previous busiest day two weeks before. The surge comes as 91 octane petrol has pushed past $3.29 at some Auckland stations, with analysts warning $4 per litre is looking increasingly likely.
The numbers tell a stark story. Auckland recorded 2.25 million bus, train and ferry trips last week – 140,000 more journeys than the same week last year. Patronage on Tuesday alone was 7 per cent higher than the previous week.
For commuters like those catching the 7:30am Western Line service from New Lynn, the maths is simple. The cost of driving 15 kilometres in or out of the city is now roughly double the cost of travelling the same distance by public transport, according to Auckland Transport director Stacey van der Putten. That's before factoring in parking costs or the anxiety of finding a petrol station that hasn't run dry.
The crisis has its roots in the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that began in late February, prompting Iran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz by threatening shipping traffic. About 100-150 tankers transited the strait on an average day before the conflict began, carrying some 20 million barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Now, tanker traffic has dwindled to the single digits on some days.
The International Energy Agency has called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market". Oil prices have risen from $71 to more than $100 a barrel in the two weeks since the conflict began.
For Auckland, a city built around the private car, the timing couldn't be worse – or perhaps, depending on your perspective, better. Just as record numbers are discovering that the train to Britomart beats sitting in traffic watching the fuel gauge drop, Auckland Transport is preparing to shut down large chunks of the rail network for maintenance.
Several full closures on Auckland's four lines are pencilled in for April, including one block over the Easter weekend and another over Anzac Day weekend, with another multi-day closure in between. The only full network closure during popular commuter times is between Monday, April 13 and Wednesday, April 15, when timetable testing for the City Rail Link will be undertaken.
Public Transport Users Association coordinator John Reeves doesn't mince words about what this means for new converts to public transport. "When they see a rail replacement bus is on, you sort of feel quite disappointed. The problem is sometimes they don't turn up. Personally myself, late at night, the rail replacement bus just has not come at all, and you're left in the middle of somewhere in South Auckland, wondering how you're going to get home".
He's worried the closures will scare off people trying public transport for the first time. "April is going to be a rough patch for Auckland rail users. And if they're new to using a train, just bear with it. Yes, use the rail bus replacement service; at least you're going to save quite a lot of money on fuel and parking".
The irony is palpable. "Aucklanders are champing at the bit for the CRL to open," Reeves said. "Petrol prices are skyrocketing by the day, so people are wanting to jump on trains, and unfortunately, with line closures, it makes a very disappointing public transport service for them".
Auckland Transport insists the closures can't be deferred. Postponing them could mean an even bigger strain on the network as the City Rail Link draws towards completion later this year. "We try to keep closures to weekends, public holidays and school holidays, so deferring these closures might mean the work would need to take place during school terms when passenger numbers are typically highest".
The fuel crisis is already reshaping how the city moves. Auckland councillor Richard Hills, who has been tracking the numbers, sees it as validation of years of investment in public transport infrastructure. "It's great to see more people choosing public transport and trying it out. Even a trip or two a week can make a difference to your time and money and make a positive difference to congestion and environment in our city".
The parking paradox
The shift to public transport comes as Auckland Transport pushes ahead with controversial plans to increase residential parking permits from $70 to $114 – a 63 per cent rise and the first increase in 13 years. AT says it costs the agency $114 to process each permit, though that claim has raised eyebrows among residents who wonder how printing a sticker can possibly cost that much.
The permit scheme, which covers inner suburbs from Grey Lynn to Grafton, was introduced to stop commuters using residential streets as free all-day parking. But with public transport use surging and petrol prices biting, the timing of the increase seems tone-deaf to some.
"It would have been better to ease the new cost over a couple of years," said Tom, a Grafton resident who asked to be identified only by his first name, noting the already scarce parking near Auckland City Hospital.
Meanwhile, parking prices across the city continue their relentless climb. From April 14, parking fees increased by 50 cents per hour at all on-street parking spaces and Auckland Transport-managed carparks – the latest in a series of increases that have made driving into the city an increasingly expensive proposition.
What happens when the music stops?
The bigger question hanging over Auckland's transport future is what happens when – or if – the fuel crisis eases. Every oil shock in living memory has followed a predictable pattern: panic, adaptation, then amnesia. When prices eventually fall, cities typically revert to their old car-dependent ways.
New Zealand owns 815 light vehicles for every 1,000 people, one of the highest rates in the world. Every decade brings an oil shock, and each time, New Zealand could have used the crisis to create policies and plans to wean itself off over-reliance on petrol. Instead, it has waited for prices to settle and gone back to building roads and buying petrol cars.
This time might be different – if only because the infrastructure is finally catching up with the need. The City Rail Link, when it opens, will transform how people move around central Auckland. The challenge is keeping those new public transport users on board through the disruption of rail closures and the temptation of cheaper petrol when the crisis eventually passes.
For now, though, the reality at street level is clear. Diesel shortages are already being reported in provincial areas, and Auckland's petrol stations are struggling to keep pumps filled. The Government has met with public transport officials to assess whether services can handle ongoing growth in demand, though the Transport Minister has ruled out further fare subsidies, noting public transport is already heavily subsidised.
Wellington has seen 10 per cent more passengers on trains and 6 per cent on buses within the past month, with the capital expecting to hit its own public transport records within the fortnight. The pattern is repeating across the country: Christchurch recorded a 2.2 per cent increase in usage, and Dunedin reported a 4 per cent jump.
As one Western Line commuter put it while squeezing onto a packed morning service: "Never thought I'd be grateful for standing room on a train. But when you see petrol at $3.80 and climbing, suddenly a crowded carriage doesn't seem so bad."
The real test will come in April, when those rail closures hit just as more Aucklanders than ever are relying on trains to get to work. It's a collision between immediate necessity and long-term planning that captures perfectly the challenges facing a car-dependent city trying to change its ways.
